Election Day 2023: Races That Could Impact Early Care and Education

Off-year elections in which neither the president nor Congress are on the ballot typically don’t attract the same level of attention as other elections. In fact, many people are likely not even aware that elections are taking place in several states on November 7th. Despite this lack of publicity, there are actually several important races and ballot measures to be decided that could have significant impacts on young children and their families. Here are the races we’ll be watching closely on election night and how they might impact early education policy.

Gubernatorial Races

There are only two gubernatorial elections on the ballot on November 7th since Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry won enough votes last month in Louisiana to avoid a runoff. As Attorney General, Landry led a multistate legal challenge against child mask requirements and mandatory staff vaccinations for Head Start. Landry’s win means that Republicans will reclaim the governor’s mansion for the first time in eight years, replacing the current Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards who was unable to seek re-election due to term limits.

In Kentucky, incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is seeking reelection following his upset victory in 2019. Beshear is facing a tough challenge in state Attorney General Daniel Cameron who is seeking to become the first Black Republican governor ever elected in the nation. Governor Beshear has repeatedly pushed for universal pre-K for all of the state’s four-year-olds, calling it a “game changer” for kids and families. Beshear has noted that the state had a $1.5 billion surplus in the last fiscal year so it could easily cover the estimated $170 million it would take to establish universal pre-K. Beshear has also touted how his administration worked to support child care providers with about $763 million in federal funding plus an additional $50 million in state funds.

For his part, Daniel Cameron has promised to work with the Republican-controlled legislature to increase the number of child care centers throughout the state, but has been noncommittal in his support for universal pre-K. The race is expected to be a close one, with Governor Beshear seen as the slight favorite by many.

The other gubernatorial election taking place on November 7th is in Mississippi. Republican Governor Tate Reeves is seeking reelection and is facing Democratic Brandon Presley in a surprisingly close race. One of the biggest contrasts between the two candidates during the race has been over the proposed expansion of Medicaid, which Presley supports and Reeves has disparaged as “welfare.” Presley has expressed support for universal pre-K programs and has been endorsed by the state’s teachers’ union. For his part, Reeves has made his opposition to transgender women and girls competing in sports the central education-related issue in his campaign. Despite the closer-than-expected polling, Reeves is still expected to win in the bright red state.

State Legislative Races

Every seat in both chambers in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia will be up for election on November 7th, but it’s the legislative races in Virginia that have garnered the most interest. Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s name is not on the ballot, but the fate of his education agenda will be decided by the results. Currently, the Virginia Senate is narrowly controlled by Democrats while Republicans narrowly control the House of Delegates.

The high stakes for the election were laid out just a few weeks ago in a report by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission. The report noted that the state needs at least 140,000 more child care spots to meet demand, including at least 33,000 infant-toddler spots. The state used over $300 million in federal COVID-19 funding in FY23 and FY24 to pay for expansions to the child care subsidy program and saw a greater than fifty percent increase in the number of children receiving subsidized care. But federal funding that made this expansion possible will end in FY24 and an estimated 25,000 fewer children will have access to subsidized care when the funding runs out. The report estimates that it will cost the state $319 million annually to maintain the expansion, highlighting the importance of the current race for control of the state legislature.

State Ballot Measures

There are two state ballot measures worth paying attention to because they have direct impacts on early education. Proposition Two in Texas is an effort by policymakers to address the state’s child care shortage. If passed, the state constitution would be amended to allow counties or municipalities to provide a property tax exemption of between 50 and 100 percent of the value of any property used to operate a child care facility. The amendment aims to provide financial relief to child care providers who have struggled to keep their doors open since the start of the pandemic.

The other state ballot measure worth highlighting is Proposition II in Colorado. Back in 2020, Colorado voters approved Proposition EE to create a tax on nicotine products and use the revenue for health and education programs, including the creation of the state’s universal pre-K program. That tax has actually brought in about $24 million more in revenue than expected and the state constitution requires voters to decide whether the state can spend the excess revenue. Passage of Proposition II would result in the state being allowed to spend the $24 million on the state’s pre-K program while rejection of the proposition would lead to those funds being returned to wholesalers and distributors of nicotine products.