How the House Reconciliation Bill Harms the Average American Family

What we know from recent public opinion data
Blog Post
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April 28, 2025

This post is part of our ongoing series analyzing the House Republican budget reconciliation bill, known as the Student Success and Taxpayer Savings Plan, which proposes sweeping changes to federal financial aid, student loans, and college accountability. We have written about how the bill will make college less affordable, how new aid limits based on the median cost of college will be a recipe for chaos, how the bill dramatically changes loan repayment, and how it expands Pell Grants to unaccredited providers and low-return programs. Our analysis of the budget reconciliation process is ongoing.

Today, House Republicans on the Education and Workforce committee released their budget reconciliation bill. Budget reconciliation is a special process Congress can use to quickly pass spending, revenue, or debt limit legislation with just a simple majority in the Senate -- bypassing the usual 60-vote filibuster and making it a popular legislative vehicle when both chambers and the administration are the same political party. However, under the "Byrd Rule," only policies that directly affect federal spending or revenue can be included, limiting what kinds of changes can be made.

This House bill marks a potential seismic shift in federal higher education funding, resulting in overall cuts to critical student aid programs in order to expand costly tax breaks to billionaires and corporations. Over the coming days and weeks, we will provide analysis and commentary here on EdCentral about the budget reconciliation process including details of the Senate package once released, and how policy provisions change as budget reconciliation moves through Congress.

This first piece examines how the policies in this bill are disconnected from the desires of Americans when it comes to affording higher education by reviewing public recent public opinion data.

The Bill Makes College Less Affordable — Ignoring Americans’ Top Higher Ed Concern

  • Polling Insight (Forthcoming data to be released in July 2025 from New America/NORC):
    • 74% of Americans — including majorities from both parties (91% of Democrats, 58% of Republicans) — say the federal government should spend more taxpayer dollars to make higher education affordable.
    • 80% want the government to increase the Pell Grant maximum. Increasing Pell has widespread bipartisan support—94% of Democrats want it increased along with 67% of Republicans.
  • Reality:
    • The House reconciliation bill does the opposite:
      • Caps Pell eligibility and overall award amount based on restrictive maximum income and enrollment intensity thresholds.
      • Shifts to a median national cost calculation that ignores and glosses over real student living expenses that have increased substantially over the years.
      • Penalizes students—particularly working and parenting students—in degree programs who attend less than half time by cutting off Pell Grant access.

Bottom Line: Americans are calling for more help paying for education — this bill cuts it back.

The Bill Favors the Wealthy and Well-Connected, Not Working Families

  • Polling Insight (CBS News/YouGov, April 23–25):
    • Nearly 70% of Americans believe Trump's policies favor the wealthy.
    • Over half of Americans say his policies work against the middle class (52%) and working class (55%).
  • Reality:
    • The House reconciliation bill slashes overall federal student aid:
      • New barriers make Pell Grants harder to access, cutting awards for students based on enrollment intensity and income.
      • Lifetime loan caps and the elimination of important deferments punish students who face economic hardship or need flexibility to complete degrees.
    • Instead of expanding access, the bill shrinks opportunity, making higher education increasingly an option only for those who can already afford it.
    • Higher education, once a pathway to upward mobility, will increasingly return to how it has historically been—a privilege of the wealthyaccelerating economic stratification and closing off the American Dream for millions.

Bottom Line: When Americans are already frustrated that policies favor the rich, this bill doubles down — ensuring that educational opportunity becomes more about the ability to pay than the drive to succeed.

New Repayment Options Will Leave Millions Stuck in Debt for Decades

  • Polling Insight (NYTimes/Siena Poll, April 21–24):
    • Only 17% of registered voters believe Trump's policies have helped them.
    • 65% believe Trump's policies will either make no difference or actively harm them over the next four years.
  • Reality:
    • The new Repayment Assistance Plan in the House reconciliation bill forces 30 years of payments for forgiveness, instead of the current 20-25 year time horizon for forgiveness under several existing Income-Driven Repayment (IDR) plans and shorter time periods under the SAVE plan for those who borrowed least.
    • Low-income borrowers have higher minimum monthly payments than under current IDR plans and fewer protections.
    • Many current borrowers already enrolled in an IDR plan will see their payments increase if this bill passes.

Bottom Line: Instead of offering meaningful relief, the plan extends the burden of debt across entire generations, even for people already in a repayment plan that works for them.

The Bill Dismantles Accountability Measures That Protect Students — Especially In Low-Income Communities

  • Polling Insight (New America/NORC):
    • Accountability is a bipartisan priority: 68% of Americans — including 74% of Republicans — say that institutions should lose access to taxpayer dollars if graduates fail to earn more than someone with just a high school diploma.
    • 65% of Americans believe that institutions should lose access to taxpayer dollars if students are unable to repay their loans — including 72% of Republicans.
  • Reality:
    • The bill repeals Gainful Employment rules that ensured college programs led to decent earnings.
    • It guts Borrower Defense, making it harder for defrauded students to seek justice, and the 90/10 Rule which prevents predatory recruitment of servicemembers and veterans.

Bottom Line: Americans demand colleges be held responsible for outcomes. This bill tears down important consumer protection regulations.

The Reconciliation Bill Creates Complex New Rules the Department of Education Won’t Be Able to Implement — Hurting Students and Families

  • Polling Insight (CBS News/YouGov, April 23–25):
    • About 60% of Americans believe that reducing the number of employees at federal agencies will harm programs and services they care about.
  • Reality:
    • The reconciliation bill dramatically rewrites federal student aid, adding massively complex new structures:
      • A new, highly detailed Repayment Assistance Plan for new borrowers and moving many current borrowers into a more expensive plan, requiring updating computer systems and reprocessing millions of borrower records.
      • New Workforce Pell Grant eligibility standards that require program-by-program approval and earnings tracking.
      • A reimbursement system requiring institutions to pay back the federal government if students don’t repay their loans.
    • At the same time, the Trump administration has already reduced staff at the Department of Education by half — significantly cutting the staff and individual offices needed to:
      • Process repayment plan changes.
      • Oversee college program compliance.
      • Enforce new accountability measures.
      • Support millions of students navigating a radically altered financial aid system.
  • Bottom Line: The Department will be understaffed, overwhelmed, and underfunded — leading to widespread delays, mistakes, mismanagement, and hardship for students and families. Even if the law passes, it can’t work.

SOURCES
CBS News/YouGov Poll (April 23–25, 2025), 2,365 adults, ±2.4% MOE.
NYTimes/Siena College Poll (April 21–24, 2025), 913 registered voters, ±3.8% MOE.
New America/NORC (March/April 2025 [publication date July 2025]), 1,631 adults ages 18+, ±~3%

Related Topics
Higher Education Access and Affordability Federal Education Legislation & Budget Higher Education Funding and Financial Aid