What Will 2024 Hold for Early Care and Education?

As 2023 comes to a close, it’s time to look ahead and think about what 2024 might hold for early care and education. At the start of 2023, we focused on several questions related to future developments in the sector, such as the future of the child care workforce and how states might choose to spend their Preschool Development Grants Birth through Five (PDG B-5) planning and renewal grants. Here are a few questions that rise to the top for our team when thinking about the next 12 months in early education:

How much attention will the 2024 presidential candidates give to early education on the campaign trail?

It’s hard to believe that the 2024 campaign season has already begun. There have been four debates to help decide the Republican presidential primary and the New Hampshire primary kicks off in just over a month. A rematch between President Biden and former President Trump seems like a near inevitability at this point, though recent elections have taught us that election results are often unpredictable.

A rematch of the 2020 presidential election is much more likely to be focused on fundamental questions about democracy and election integrity than specific issues such as early education. However, recent polling suggesting that most voters feel a sense of urgency around the need for affordable, quality child care might prompt the candidates to make a public case for how they plan to address this important issue. It remains to be seen what kind of early education plan President Biden intends to highlight once he becomes a regular on the campaign trail. Will he campaign on something similar to the ambitious Build Back Better plan he narrowly failed to get through Congress during his first term? And will former President Trump put forward a child care plan or ignore the issue altogether?

How will the election outcome impact federal early education policy?

The outcome of the November presidential and congressional elections will go a long way in determining what the next two years will look like for early education policy at the federal level. The tight margins in both the Senate and House have been a primary reason behind Congress’ inability to pass meaningful legislation addressing early education. Sen. Joe Manchin’s (D-WV) announcement in November that he will not seek reelection makes a very tough fight to retain control of the Senate even more difficult for Democrats.

If Democrats defeat the odds and win back control of the House while retaining their Senate majority under a re-elected President Biden, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them pursue ambitious policies similar to Build Back Better, possibly including a permanent extension of the child tax credit. Otherwise, it will require more modest, bipartisan efforts to improve the country’s early education system and send a bill to the president’s desk.

What will be the impact of the expiration of federal COVID relief funding for the child care industry?

Despite months of pressure from child care advocates, Congress failed to avert the child care funding cliff at the end of September. These critical relief funds provided stabilization grants to 220,000 providers, lowered child care costs for 700,000 children, increased compensation for 650,000 early educators, and created 300,000 new child care spots.

Prior to the expiration of the relief funds, the Century Foundation released a much-publicized report predicting that expiration of the funds could result in more than three million children across the country losing access to child care. Will the loss of child care access throughout 2024 turn out to be as dramatic as predicted? Early reports from states suggest that this worst case scenario will possibly be avoided. Despite predictions that the expiration of relief funds could lead to the shuttering of nearly 1,100 child care programs in Colorado, such disastrous outcomes have not yet been realized. This is due in large part to the efforts of state officials who are working to continue some of the activities funded by relief funds via other funding sources, such as the state’s general fund and private philanthropy.

Despite President Biden’s plea in October for $16 billion in child care funding and support from congressional Democrats, hopes are low that the funding request will be passed by Congress when it has recently struggled to complete the basic task of keeping the government open.

Which states will lead the way in expanding access to ECE?

In early 2023, we published a post highlighting several states on the brink of expanding access to early education. Two of those states, Minnesota and Vermont, successfully passed historic legislation that includes millions of dollars in new funds for child care and early learning programs. Will other states commit to similar levels of investment in 2024? And will any increased investment in pre-K be structured so that infant and toddler care aren’t negatively impacted? One state in particular to keep an eye on is Michigan, where Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer used her 2023 State of the State Address to call for free, public pre-K for all four-year-olds by the end of her second term in 2026.

What kind of progress will be made when it comes to improving the quality of early education?

Back in 2022, we wrote about the new committee on pre-K curriculum quality formed by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. After holding several listening sessions, the committee is scheduled to soon release a final report. Our team has spent much of the past year focused on improving pre-K, and we’re eager to read the final report and see what kind of impact it will make in the years to come.

Additionally, in September, the Department of Education announced the launch of the Kindergarten Sturdy Bridge Learning Community, a multi-state effort to improve kindergarten and ensure that it’s a transformational experience at the start of each student’s formal educational journey. Our team has also been working to improve the quality of kindergarten and we’re excited to see what comes out of the new learning community.

We’re also planning to do more work in 2024 focused on highlighting how to best meet the educational needs of young children with disabilities and developmental delays. We hope to build on the momentum set in motion last month by the administration’s updated joint policy statement focused on the inclusion of children with disabilities in early education programs.

What will be the final outcome of the federal government’s rule-making around improving child care access and affordability and raising Head Start teacher pay?

Back in April, President Biden signed an executive order that directs federal agencies to take action to make child and elder care cheaper and more accessible, representing the most comprehensive set of executive actions any president has taken to improve the country’s care infrastructure. The order was followed in July by a proposed rule designed to lower child care costs for families and improve child care provider payment rates and practices. In November another proposed rule was released that could lead to the most significant changes to Head Start and Early Head Start in almost a decade, including a potential $10,000 pay raise for Head Start teachers. We’ll be closely following updates on these proposed rules throughout 2024.