Will stop-outs return to community college anytime soon?

Before the pandemic, community colleges nationwide were experiencing enrollment decline and stagnation after enrollments initially swelled during the Great Recession. The pandemic accelerated that decline, causing almost one in five students to disappear from community college campuses in just three short years. Unfortunately, data from New America’s Community College Enrollment Survey show that of those students who recently stopped attending community college, many don’t have plans to return anytime soon.

This blog post further explores the stop-out data from the Community College Enrollment Survey, diving into the demographics of stop-outs to understand which students may be harder to engage with and enroll again in the future, why different demographics stopped attending, and what incentives could entice students to return.

Stop-outs don’t seem likely to return

One of our main findings from this year’s survey was that many stop-outs don’t seem interested in returning to school anytime soon. Half of all stop-outs do not feel it’s likely they will return, up 12 percentage points when we asked in 2020. A higher percentage of older stop-outs—those older than 30 years old—say they are unlikely to enroll in the future compared to those under 30 (See Figure 1).

When broken down by race and by gender, people of color, and in particular women of color, report a higher likelihood of re-enrollment. Nearly half of Black and 54 percent of Latinx stop-outs say it’s likely they will enroll in the future, compared to 38 percent of White stop-outs. This finding remains consistent when accounting for gender—51 percent of Black women and 57 percent of Latinx women say it is likely they will enroll again in the future compared to only 38 percent of White women (See Figure 2).

But even for those stop-outs who have plans to enroll in the future, over half (53 percent) do not plan to do so until fall 2023 or later. Delaying enrollment for so long in the future could indicate that many stop-outs don’t have concrete plans for enrolling, potentially resulting in even further delays to their educational attainment as lives can become unpredictable in intervening years (See Figure 3).

What is causing students to stop out?

Stop-outs provided several reasons for their decision to not remain enrolled in their programs. Broadly, having to work (63 percent), no longer being able to afford a program (56 percent), and having a loss of self-motivation or ambition (56 percent) served as the top three reasons behind respondents’ decisions to stop out (See Figure 4). Needing to work was a major concern for men under 30 (73 percent) and white men (71 percent) in particular. A loss of self-motivation especially impacted men under 30 (79 percent) and women under 30 (75 percent). Considering that the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted everyone’s comfort and security, it makes sense that this would be of particular influence to young adults in some of their most formative years.

Concerns related to affordability and economic uncertainty were also prominent among various demographic groups. Nearly seven in 10 (69 percent) stop-outs between the ages of 30 and 39 reported that they were no longer able to afford their program, a rate that is 13 points higher than it is for all stop-outs (See Table 1). Forty percent of stop-outs also reported that overall uncertainty due to the economy contributed to their decision not to enroll, and this was especially true for men under 30 (56 percent). More Americans are likely focused on getting into the workforce in order to meet their basic needs compared to past economic recessions, especially as costs go up.

Possible incentives for returning to school

It is notable that many of the incentives for re-enrollment have to do with the cost of college. When asked what would have to change for stop-outs to return to school, 38 percent said that their current financial situation would need to change (See Figure 5). This is especially true for those between the ages of 30 and 39, with over half (55 percent) agreeing with this statement.

While considering possible solutions that could incentivize these stop-outs to re-enroll, we found that free tuition (63 percent), free textbooks and course materials (58 percent), and being able to afford their programs (57 percent) emerged as the top ideas that would likely encourage their return to college (See Figure 6). Stop-outs between the ages of 30 and 39 expressed greater support for these measures: 72 percent endorsed free tuition, 66 percent endorsed free textbooks and course materials, and 67 percent endorsed the ability to afford their program.

These incentives resonate with Black women in particular. Compared to the 63 percent of all stop-outs that express they would likely re-enroll if tuition were free, 71 percent of Black women shared this sentiment. Two-thirds of Black women said they would likely re-enroll if textbooks and other course materials were free. The findings indicate that such policy solutions possess the potential to uplift historically marginalized communities in higher education.

Conclusion

Findings from our survey indicate that stop-outs are hesitant about returning to school. These concerns particularly relate to economic security, especially as costs go up due to inflation. As institutional leaders and policymakers look towards potential solutions that may encourage these stop-outs to return to campuses, affordability must play a central role in such reforms.

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