A Resilient Future, Imagined Together

Across the U.S., rising temperatures are triggering an increase in sea levels, wildfires, and devastating storms. Because of these environmental shifts, by 2100 millions of Americans are projected to move to “receiving cities” across the Great Lakes region like Chicago, Detroit, and Minneapolis.

In these receiving cities, population growth could stimulate local economies, revitalize neighborhoods, and create new opportunities for existing residents and newcomers. Or, it could worsen existing housing shortages, exacerbate infrastructure and public service shortcomings, and lead to tensions between longtime locals and new arrivals.

The decisions that receiving cities make today are likely the difference between which of these scenarios comes to pass tomorrow. More often than not, these initial planning processes take place behind closed doors at local government offices. So how can cities carry out this work in ways that better center the very residents who will be most impacted by potential in-migration? Low-income and Black and brown communities, historically marginalized and at disproportionate risk of displacement in changing cities, are typically not at the table during high-level planning and budgeting discussions

On April 1st, New America hosted a first-of-its-kind convening that placed these residents right in the middle of city- and county-level conversations on the future of Chicago amid the twin forces of climate change and climate migration. The event, Climate Change, Housing, and Migration in South Side Chicago: A Community-Centered Conversation, brought together 60 participants, including 27 South Side residents, along with community leaders, city and county policymakers, philanthropic funders, and financial institutions, for a bold, collaborative exercise in imagining futures that are resilient, equitable, and shaped from the ground up.

At the heart of our event was a methodology more often found in corporate boardrooms and government planning offices than in community meeting spaces: scenario planning. Grounded in the discipline of futurism—or the study and practice of anticipating, imagining, and analyzing the future—scenario planning is a structured approach for grappling with uncertainty and preparing for a range of plausible future conditions. The process includes looking at current trends across economics, society, technology, politics, and the environment to plan for opportunities and challenges. Rather than predict a single future, it allows communities to explore “what if” scenarios—What if climate migration to Chicago increases dramatically? What if flooding along Lake Michigan changes where people live or how homes are built? What if South Side neighborhoods become hubs of green innovation?

These questions aren’t just hypothetical. The South Side of Chicago is already experiencing trends like more frequent and more extreme flooding, international migration, and lake-level rise—and community members deserve to have a leading role in answering such challenges.

Typically, residents are invited into policy planning processes late in the game. They’re asked to provide feedback on proposals that are already shaped by technical experts and institutional stakeholders. In contrast, our approach in Chicago, based on New America’s CivicSpace methodology, centered residents as co-creators of future visions for their city from the very beginning.

We recruited residents from South Side neighborhoods likely to be most affected by the dual dynamics of direct climate impacts and climate migration, thanking them with a giftcard for their time. The group included young and old, homeowners, renters, and landlords, all with a variety of incomes and educational backgrounds. For the 100 residents who completed our intake form, extreme heat was their most pressing climate concern, followed by flooding and extreme storms.

We held the event in a community center’s gym in South Chicago, flipping the typical dynamic so that city and county officials traveled to residents.

Once everyone was in the room, we got to work.

Drawing on backcasting methodology, we started the day by talking through current trends in South Side Chicago, with an emphasis on impacts to housing access and affordability. A few local experts gave high-level “lightning talks” to help set the baseline for breakout discussions. Presentations focused on local housing stock and market prices, existing migration patterns, and climate impacts like heat, flooding, and storms. We then broke up into nine groups to discuss how all these factors might affect South Side housing and community development in the future. We chose the year 2050 as a focal point, as it’s far enough away to plan for, but close enough to realistically imagine. Breakout groups were asked to collaboratively come up with a “preferred future” for their communities.

Conversations were rich and deeply rooted in place. We intentionally created breakout groups with a mix of residents, policymakers, nonprofits, businesses, and philanthropic leaders, making sure that everyone knew they brought specialized knowledge to the table. As a result, everyone engaged on equal footing.

Circling the room, we noticed that the most animated contributions, and the most interesting ideas, weren’t coming from academic experts and government leaders; they were coming from community residents. These residents drew on their concrete, lived experiences and the strategic foresight tools that we provided to articulate a clear set of priorities for what a vibrant and thriving South Side might look like in 2050.

Here’s what they emphasized:

• Housing justice: The legacies of redlining and racialized disinvestment still shape South Side neighborhoods. Residents called for more affordable homeownership options, through community land trusts, rent-to-own models, and protections against speculative homeownership.
• Environmental resilience: From walkable streets to solar-powered homes, urban gardens, and green jobs, residents envisioned a climate transition that benefits both the planet and their neighborhoods. Some even imagined “floating cities” and lakefront tourism as sources of future prosperity.
• Infrastructure and migration: Anticipating the pressures of population growth due to climate migration, participants emphasized proactive investment in stormwater management, public transit, and housing retrofits— all to help ensure that new arrivals can be welcomed without crowding out current residents.
• Maximizing existing resources: Creative ideas emerged on how to leverage existing resources to multiply the positive impact of new programs and investments. Participants noted the lower cost of repairing existing housing stock, for example. Vacant lots, a significant challenge on the South Side, could be transformed into green or cultural spaces, or green housing options.
• Community empowerment: Self-sufficient neighborhoods with affordable housing and intergenerational support was a prominent discussion point. Participants highlighted the need for greater participation in community planning, and were hungry for more information and a seat at the table to build an inclusive community.
• Cultural preservation: There was a powerful desire to retain the South Side’s identity—its intergenerational knowledge, cultural enclaves, historic homes, and sense of community—amid any changes that may come.

What happened in South Side Chicago wasn’t just a planning session—it was a glimpse of what a just transition can look like when power and foresight are placed in the hands of the people most impacted by climate change, shifts in the housing market, and migration.

Participants provided a number of actionable insights that we’ll synthesize and share back with policymakers, philanthropy, and community-based partners, in order to translate our convening into concrete policy recommendations and investment strategies. Ultimately, we’re planning to develop a set of tools and resources that inform equitable public policies in Chicago and beyond.

Moving forward, we plan to partner with local stakeholders in other receiving cities and convene similar community-led scenario planning sessions that explore how residents can work towards a more resilient and equitable future amid expected climate impacts, notably climate migration. Building on these discussions we plan to launch a Great Lakes Resilient Receiving Cities Network, comprised of cities who will work collaboratively and with New America to answer questions about their housing, jobs, and public services that will allow their residents to not only survive but thrive in our climate future.