Fossil Fuel’s New Weapon: Climate Change “Delayism”

Amid warnings from climate experts and activists, the ominous 1.5-degrees Celsius threshold has been breached for the first time across an entire year, marking a pivotal moment in our battle against climate change. World leaders, in a pledge back in 2015, vowed to contain long-term temperature rise within this limit to avert the most catastrophic consequences. While this breach doesn't shatter the landmark Paris Agreement, it’s a critical milestone in our losing battle against climate change and a stark reminder of the need to rapidly and equitably transition away from fossil fuels.

Earlier this month, an extreme heatwave forced South Sudan to close schools and pushed citizens of Rio de Janeiro, where the heat index soared to a staggering 144 degrees Fahrenheit, into the ocean to find relief from scorching temperatures. That same week, Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi oil company Aramco publicly and vehemently proclaimed that the energy transition was “visibly failing.” Nassir added that phasing out oil and gas was a mere “fantasy” and predictions of peak oil and gas demand were simply wrong.

It is now almost universally acknowledged that the burning of fossil fuels is the main driver of climate change and scientists say urgent action to cut carbon emissions can still slow warming. So at the most critical moment for our transition, are we going to let Big Oil tell us that it can’t be done?

Making a decisive shift towards renewable and sustainable energy sources is necessary in the fight against climate change. Momentum for decarbonizing the global economy is palpable, propelled by nations and corporations alike. With over 170 countries setting renewable energy targets, integrated into their commitments under the Paris Agreement, the trajectory is clear. Investments in renewable energy now outpace those in fossil fuels, projected to reach $4.5 trillion annually by the 2030s. Moreover, the lowered costs of solar and wind energy have made them economically competitive with traditional fuels—sparking a surge of private investment in green technologies. Global investments exceeding $1.7 trillion are anticipated in technologies like wind and solar power, electric vehicles, and batteries this year, surpassing the margin of just over $1 trillion allocated to fossil fuels.

Despite this progress, a perplexing narrative persists—one that advocates continued reliance on fossil fuels for global energy needs, even as the tide of change swells.

When Aramco CEO Amin Nasser boldly proclaimed that “we should abandon the fantasy of phasing out oil and gas” at an energy and tech conference in Houston, his words were met with applause. This sentiment was echoed just weeks after ExxonMobil's chief executive placed blame on the consumer for the world’s failure to meet its climate goals. These remarks cannot be dismissed in isolation; they signal a deliberate effort to obstruct the urgent transition away from fossil fuels, which is critical for the planet’s survival.

There has been an unmistakable shift in the rhetoric surrounding climate change and the fossil fuel industry; Outright denial is no longer in vogue. Instead, a more subtle tactic has emerged, with the industry positioning itself as champions of the developing world and indispensable providers of energy access. This strategy, often referred to as “climate delayism,” is a coordinated effort to cast doubt on climate actions, aiming to slow down or indefinitely suspend progress.

While the playbook is not new, the industry has taken to employing new strategies recognizing the shift in public opinion. In 2015, investigative journalists exposed ExxonMobil’s awareness of their catastrophic climate impacts dating back as early as the 1950s, with the company even accurately predicting global warming. A 2021 analysis also demonstrated that Exxon had downplayed its own role in the climate crisis for decades in public-facing messaging.

In response to changing public opinion, the oil industry firmly maintains that petroleum and natural gas will continue to dominate the energy landscape for decades to come. They are investing heavily in new developments, particularly in gas. In the United States, efforts to thwart the transition to renewables are cloaked in environmental rhetoric, while in the Global South, the tactics are even more insidious, camouflaged as initiatives to address energy poverty and support socio-economic development.

A persistent narrative portrays impoverished countries, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, as reliant on continued oil and gas exploitation for economic growth. It argues that it is unjust for the wealthier Global North, historically the greatest carbon emitters, to now shift the burden of climate action onto the Global South. While elements of this argument hold merit, particularly concerning the need for a just transition, it is evident that advocates for the fossil fuel industry are pushing this narrative to serve their own interests.

The backlash from the fossil fuel industries highlights their sheer desperation. It belies the fact that there is a noticeable change in both the research being released and subsequent public opinion. In the United States, 67 percent of Americans say the U.S. should focus on advancing alternative energy sources, such as wind, solar, and hydrogen technology.

Climate change experts emphasize that in African nations rich in fossil fuel reserves, the revenue generated has predominantly lined the pockets of corrupt political elites, failing to alleviate widespread poverty or address energy scarcity. This mismanagement, fueled by petrodollars, often exacerbates the inadequate delivery of essential services. For instance, despite being leading oil producers for decades, Angola and Nigeria reported dismal access to electricity in 2021, with only 40 percent and 57 percent of the population having reliable electricity, respectively.

During the 2023 Africa Climate Summit, a coalition comprising 500 activist groups issued a resounding call for an urgent global phaseout of fossil fuels. They underscored the necessity of transitioning to a new energy paradigm: a 100 percent renewable energy system designed to fulfill all of Africa's energy requirements in a manner that is socially and environmentally sustainable, prioritizing the well-being of people.

It is evident that the fossil fuel industry is facing an uphill battle in their quest to delay the transition to renewable energy sources, but the question remains: How far will the fossil fuel industry go in their desperate propaganda campaign against clean energy? To start to advance change, we need to empower communities to see through the deception and recenter the narratives around a just energy transition.

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