Rethinking Red and Blue

With the 2008 presidential election barely a week away--and visions of swing states dancing in the candidates’ heads--the Next Social Contract Initiative hosted “Rethinking Red and Blue” at the New America Foundation on October 27, 2008. Keynote speaker Dr. Andrew Gelman, professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University, discussed his book, Red State Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do, an analysis of the relationship between income and voting patterns across the 50 states. Frank Micciche, deputy director of the Next Social Contract Initiative, moderated the event, which also featured David Frum, Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former economic speechwriter for President George W. Bush.

Gelman opened his talk by noting that elections are fundamentally a choice between two competing views of the future: America’s geographic polarization is really a polarization of lifestyles and values. He described how the Red America-Blue America divide is typically portrayed by media commentators, referencing David Brooks’ analysis of the disparities between Montgomery County, MD and Franklin County, PA in the wake of the 2000 election. Gelman praised Brooks’ work, but disputed the emergent conventional wisdom that contrasts elite Blue America with hardscrabble Red America. In fact, Gelman’s statistical work demonstrates that, although poor states tend to vote Republican, poor voters lean toward the Democrats. The true divide between rich and poor states exists at the upper end of the income scale. The rich are more Republican in every state, but the gap between rich and poor is widest in poor Red states. The omnipresent culture war is not, therefore, a war between rich and poor states; rather, it is a war among rich voters in Red and Blue states. These political and geographic trends emerged only in the past 20 years, as voters responded to the parties’ ideological “sorting out.”

Frum, who has recently focused his writing on the political effects of income inequality, remarked that Gelman’s book continues to profoundly impact his thinking. Referencing his recent article in the New York Times Magazine, Frum noted that America’s most unequal counties, the urban centers, are also its most Democratic, while the most equal areas, the exurbs, are Republican strongholds. Returning to the theme of partisan “sorting out,” Frum suggested that the period from 1992 to 2004 was one of great political transition, but that the nation may be returning to its traditional partisan stasis. How the Republican Party responds to the new paradigm--whether the party intensifies its outreach to lower-income or upper-income voters--will depend on the leadership style of President Obama.

A lively discussion followed, which touched upon globalization, demographics, the impact of education, and, of course, the pending presidential election.

Participants
Dr. Andrew Gelman
Author, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do

Professor, Department of Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University

David Frum
Resident Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
Former Economic Speech Writer, President George W. Bush

Moderator:
Frank Micciche
Deputy Director, Next Social Contract Initiative, New America Foundation