What does COVID mean for vulnerable workers? Ask a millennial cashier

To paraphrase The Golden Girls’ Sophia Petrillo, “Picture it: a random night February 2020 at Walmart in Avon, Indiana.” You’re ready to check out but instead of lanes manned by people--friendly cashiers that talked to you about every item on the conveyor belt--you find self-checkout with lines extending far into the aisles. You think back and realize you haven't seen as many associates stocking shelves or, even, mopping up spills. Instead you saw the Auto-C self-driving floor scrubber, a cleaning robot, replacing some staff at Walmart and other commercial sites across the country. You might feel inconvenienced. You might feel curious. But have you asked yourself: what happened to all those human workers?

The COVID-19 outbreak and related economic impacts have sent Americans reeling, exposing the precarious nature of being a lower-paid but essential worker in America. Cashiers, food service workers, administrative clerks -- all were facing tough shifts in an increasingly automated workforce, but this crisis has accelerated those shifts. And when we layer on the fact that much of the American workforce--50% now and 75% by 2025-- is Millennial (born between 1981-1994), a group hit again and again by recession and barriers to wealth-building, a picture emerges: a worker with many working years of ahead of them who’s facing financial tripwires at every turn.

Over the last ten years, we have seen a drastic shift in the construct of being a working adult in America. New technology has drastically changed the opportunity for human workers -- in some cases, reducing or eliminating some jobs altogether. In 2008, the world witnessed the crash of the stock market during the first recession for millennials in the workforce. Many millennials had been employed a minimum of two years after graduating from college. By May 2009, 14.5 million U.S. citizens were unemployed. Last fall, The Atlantic released a prediction that millennials would be grossly impacted by a recession potentially in the next year or whenever it happened. It was said that millennials would not fare as well as their parents. President Obama’s administration released a report on millennials in 2014, predicting millennials would less likely be homeowners, but millennials would be the change in the process of how we function in society.

A few months ago, people across the globe were going on with their lives without considering the possibility that our way of life could change in a matter of seconds. Meanwhile, those of us in academia were already seeing an uptick in the discourse on artificial intelligence, equity, climate change, and urban farming. Even before the pandemic, it was easy to see that there were populations that would bear the brunt of economic disparities within the next five or ten years. Who would be among the first impacted? In 2020, of all years, this is an urgent question.

Reports from CNN, Forbes magazine, The Atlantic, and the White House have identified that millennials would be the demographic most impacted by a natural disaster or recession. This hypothesis has been in play repeatedly for the last 15 years. Pew Research Center released data that identifies millennials as the largest generation in the U.S. Labor Force. In the same year, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the report that showed the average millennial worker’s on-the-job tenure is 2.8 years. The Boomer generation averaged 10 years. Millennials are the most educated generation but earn 20% less than baby boomers. While millennials present as a more racially diverse and ethnic group throughout the United States, they are also more visible as residents in urban cities.

Let’s revisit Walmart as a way of looking at prospects for the average hourly worker. The average hourly wage of a full-time U.S. Walmart associate is $14.26 or a salary of $25,000 per year. Even if someone working at Walmart is a full-time associate, based on the average salary they cannot even properly support themselves in Harlingen, Texas, Kiplinger’s Cheapest City to live in the United States or afford the median rent of $735.90 per month. Here in Indianapolis--one of the largest cities in the United States--$25,000 per year is not a livable wage either.

Now, let’s consider that millennials make up the largest share of the wholesale and retail workforce. Then consider the fact that 80% of Walmart cashiers are women. It becomes easy to see why, whether you are a Walmart cashier--or, frankly, a cashier at any retail store--in Harlingen, Texas or in Indianapolis, you’re likely to be a millennial woman living in poverty. In fact, in 2017 millennial women were the largest group living in poverty in Indianapolis and in many the Great Lakes region’s largest metros. In the country as a whole, the poverty rate for millennial women is 18%. And the phenomenon is not limited to big box cashiers: women make up two-thirds of grocery store clerks and fast food workers, a group often lacking a living wage.

These women are a proxy for the challenges faced by many millennials in the COVID-19 pandemic. If you were to browse Facebook, you may find videos of millennials that have been impacted economically by this epidemic. You may see families losing their loved ones and unable to afford proper care or pay medical bills. I encountered one Black millennial and first-generation college graduate in Michigan begin a new job in retail just days before the pandemic hit. His wages are paid hourly. He worked for two days and was ordered to stay home after being unemployed for two months. If this virus is transmitted to him, he does not have insurance coverage with his new employer. What if this same millennial loses his home to a natural disaster during this pandemic, as happened to some of his counterparts in Nashville, Tennessee?

GoFundMe requests and CashApp solicitations are increasing daily. And the flood of requests is not relegated to emerging workers. It is apparent that many Americans, not just millennials, are short of a cash reserve. After this pandemic, without emergency funds, a multitude of individuals will end up homeless with poor mental and physical health. Make this a consideration when you don’t get the smile you expect from your next cashier.

This volatile time has offered us the opportunity to reevaluate the American workforce. We now have proof that human workers are needed as much as technology to maintain our society. Employers must assess their human capital and increase training for their employees to meet the demands of the job, with and without technology. Millennials, as the drivers of the labor force, must take initiative to hold their employers accountable to create strategic and sustainable plans for the future of work. These plans should include an analysis of socioeconomic needs for employees and their families.

To address the economic needs of workers, local employers and local government officials will need to engage the community in this process. American citizens should implore policymakers to carry out policies that will support the health and economic mobility of all workers in America, including part-time hourly workers. As more workers cobble together a living, paid leave and health benefits can no longer be the exclusive realm of the full-time employee...and, in truth, a startlingly small share of full-time workers have paid leave anyway and in Indiana, employer-paid healthcare is not a given, either. Making strides to engage policy and define benefits that support the diverse needs of all employees will be the best move for the future of work.

Desmond Kemp is an activist, educator, and scholar in the New America - IUPUI Public Problem-Solving Partnership. His work focuses on helping marginalized populations navigate in increasingly stratified economy.