Navigating Emerging Technology Hype Traps and Timelines

Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) can help policymakers, funders, media, and educators hedge against hype traps and evaluate the maturity of emerging technologies.
Blog Post
Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) can help policymakers, funders, media, and educators assess the maturity of emerging technologies.
Jan. 21, 2025

This article was produced as part of New America’s Future of Work and the Innovation Economy Initiative. Subscribe to our Future of Work Bulletin newsletter to stay current on our latest research, events, technical assistance, and storytelling.

Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), also known as Technology Readiness Assessments, help policymakers, funders, and innovators determine the development stage of emerging technologies – serving as a helpful tool to navigate hype cycles or traps. The TRL scale provides a standardized measure of a technology's maturity, from fundamental research to implementation.

Since the passage of the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, the United States is advancing 21st century industrial policies that promote technology-based economic development predicated around emerging technology areas outlined in the bill. CHIPS emphasized bolstering the semiconductor industry and shoring up American leadership status in industries shaped by quantum science and technology, energy technology, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and beyond.

The U.S. National Science Foundation’s Regional Innovation Engines program, the U.S. Economic Development Administration’s Regional Technology and Innovation Hubs, and the U.S. Defense Department’s Microelectronic Commons hubs are three signature programs created through the bill to grow regional innovation economies around these technologies.

As CHIPS implementation progresses, TRL scales will become essential for decision-makers. Policymakers, media, educators, workforce developers, and science and technology leaders in funded regions must assess their technology's market readiness over the next decade to guide investments, workforce planning, and public messaging.

The Origin of the TRL Scale

The TRL scale was born from NASA’s space shuttle mission in 1974. The agency needed a structured way to assess and manage the progression of the various technologies relevant to its mission. NASA’s projects involved substantial costs and risks, so establishing a clear system for understanding the maturity of each technology component was vital.

As NASA experienced success with this approach, other governmental bodies and industries took note, including the U.S. Departments of Defense, Energy, and Transporation, which each adapted the TRL scale for its unique technology domains beginning in the early 1990s.

Now, TRLs are widely used across industries, including aerospace, maritime, electronics, and healthcare, to guide procurement strategy, investment roadmaps, and risk mitigation approaches when road-mapping a technology’s maturation timeline. Different sectors and government agencies may use their customized version of the TRL. For example, the U.S. National Institutes of Health has three TRL scales for diagnostics, therapeutics, and medical devices. The Defense Department uses the Manufacturing Readiness Levels (MRLs) scale across many programs and initiatives.

For industrial policy implementors or observers, the TRL scale is handy in evaluating emerging technologies boosted through federal investments. The technology maturation pathways for CHIPS Act technology areas especially demand significant investment and rigorous testing before becoming viable across m programs and initiatives.

The 9 TRL Scale Levels of Technology Development

The TRL Scale includes nine levels moving from early conceptual ideas to fully realized systems or products ready for market deployment. TRL 1 is the lowest, and TRL 9 is the highest. TRLs are often used as a proxy for commercial readiness in government contracts or grant solicitations.

Using TRL Scale for Industrial Policy Implementation

CHIPS Act investments like NSF Engines and EDA Tech Hubs aim to funnel research into technologies through TRL level 9. While both investments aim to bring technologies to market, NSF Engines was designed to focus earlier on the TRL scale with more emphasis on use-inspired research while EDA Tech Hubs focus more heavily on testing and prototyping.

These investments especially aim to help emerging technology development progress past the so-called “Valley of Death,” which refers to TRLs 4-7. Most innovations fail to mature beyond the Valley of Death because innovators don’t account for risk factors beyond technical feasibility.

There is more to technology development than the science itself. Engines and Tech Hubs help regions navigate nontechnical risks, including market uncertainty, regulatory risk, operational risk, and the soundness of the business model underpinning the technology deployment.

Once a technology progresses past TRL 7, policymakers, business leaders, investors, and workforce leaders can feel more confident that the technology will mature through level 9, given enough budget and time allocation.

However, depending on its intended use, technologies can exist at multiple TRL levels. For example, the components of a cell phone are at TRL level 9 for most use-cases, but if a use-case involved having phones operational at extreme cold in Alaska or extremely hot and humid temperatures in Florida, the component TRLs would change. TRLs could be used to assess which components need to be upgraded to accommodate new use cases.

By providing a common language and structure, TRLs enable state and local governments, philanthropies, industry, economic and workforce developers, and investors to communicate more effectively and honestly about the maturity of the technology their Engine or Tech Hub hopes to focus their regional economy around. This insight is invaluable in deciding whether to allocate further resources, pivot development strategies, or abandon an initiative altogether.

Fostering technological innovation is not easy, and harnessing it to create the industries and jobs of the future is even more difficult. As the nation continues to implement 21st-century industrial policy to grow the innovation economy, the TRL scale will prove to be an indispensable tool for navigating hype cycles and supporting the development of groundbreaking innovations.

Shalin Jyotishi is the Founder and Managing Director for New America's Future of Work and Innovation Economy initiative, Forbes contributor, and a Visiting Scholar at Arizona State University. Follow Shalin on BlueSky, X, and LinkedIn.