Spoiler Alert

This paper was jointly published with the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group.

Third parties are a perpetual fascination of American politics. Each presidential election cycle brings its own new wave of punditry calling the nation to consider whether this will be the year in which a third party finally breaks through, upending a system in which the two parties have existed in lock-step competition for 160 years — longer than most of the world’s democracies.

There is plenty to froth the speculation ahead of the 2020 election cycle. Are the parties veering too far apart, leaving an open route for a potential centrist presidential candidate like Ohio Governor John Kasich? Is President Donald Trump vulnerable to an insurgent Republican challenger? As this report shows, a record-high 68 percent of Americans say the two parties are not doing an adequate job, and they would like to see a third party.

Our report offers two reasons to be skeptical that a new third party is imminent.

First, while support for a hypothetical third party is high, consensus collapses on the specifics of what, exactly, that third party should stand for. About one-third of those supportive of a third party want a party of the center, but about one-fifth want a party that is more conservative than the Republicans, and about one-fifth want a party that is more liberal than the Democrats.(1) No single third party emerges as a focal point of change. It would take at least five and possibly even six parties to adequately represent the ideological yearnings of the American people.

Second, partisans are reasonably well contented with their parties, and particularly motivated by a dislike of the other party. In a single-round plurality election system, taking a chance on a third party is a costly gamble when a person believes that there are real differences between the two parties. Even voters who have some qualms about their own party view the opposing party as far worse. In a single-round plurality system, voting for a third party requires widespread feelings of indifference between the two major parties. The overwhelming majority of voters, including self-identified independents, do see a difference.

Certainly, there are many signs of discontent with the current party system. But so far, that discontent doesn’t add up to support for an alternative that could topple the two leading choices given the existing electoral system.

Could the existing system change to allow for more parties? It’s possible. But it would take major structural reforms. Our analysis suggests that voters are largely unaware of possible reforms to open up the party system to third, as well as fourth and fifth parties. And they don’t connect those reforms to changing the party system. If Americans are to fulfill their stated desire for a third party, it will take considerable work by reformers to make the connection between electoral laws and electoral choices.

View and download the paper here.